Rubber market bull confidence is still insufficient-Iota

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Service > Rubber market bull confidence is still insufficient

Rubber market bull confidence is still insufficient

Shanghai Rubber Futures since the end of may out of 15000 yuan / ton on all the way down, in August, mid main 1601 HuJiao contract mainly to fall after shocks repair and late macroeconomic expectations weakened, with the decline in global capital markets, the collapse type, rubber financial attributes appear Powei hit a new low. Insiders said that the upper and middle reaches of the inventory reduction transferred to the downstream link, tire factory and car manufacturers inventory backlog increased significantly; circulation of the middle reaches of the rubber is passive to inventory status, the Bulls counterattack confidence is still insufficient, economic downward pressure unabated situation, glue price is still optimistic about the short.

Data show that the first 7 months of this year, a member of the ANRPC natural rubber production fell by 2.1%. Analysts pointed out that the glue price is long-term low fan, dry weather, and southern Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia rubber farmers reduce tapping drop 7 per month is the main reason for the fast. September Thailand gradually entered the prosperous period, although prices are low inhibition tapping enthusiasm, but the seasonal output pressure still exists and till now, there were no large-scale abandoned cutting phenomenon.
2014 China's macro economy continues to adjust the trend in 2013, continue to adjust from the rapid growth. On the rubber market, the imbalance between supply and demand has not changed, experienced a year of suffering, the price continued to fall under the pressure, due to a substantial increase in import volume, the amount of additional resources is still rising. At the same time, the United States on China's tire double reverse survey, the international crude oil prices fell sharply, the domestic heavy truck tire market sales decline and other bad news, the price record low.
Some analysts in Shanghai, said the country as a high cost of rubber area, supply flexibility, the first half of Hainan's output is expected to be around 20%; and in addition to rubber and agricultural output decreased, plastic factory also reduces the willingness to ship. The shrinking trend of the upper and middle reaches of the market has not improved.
Data show that in July 2015 China's imports of natural rubber is 267645 tons, the chain increased by 73%, compared with last year increased by 70%. 1-7 month import volume of 1396256 tons, down 11.5%; synthetic rubber imports in July 152691 tons, down 11.5%, an increase of 27%. 1-7 month import volume of 965502 tons, an increase of 10%.
Inventory, as of August 14th, Qingdao bonded rubber stocks rose sharply to 130100 tons, compared with the end of last month rose 17.42%. Specific point of view, natural rubber is 101200 tons, compared with the end of last month rose 18400 tons, becoming the main rubber species of inventory growth. Current domestic imports continued to decline in the overall stock of dollars in the overall inventory to remain low,
Industry insiders said that the tire market to digest the bad circulation to the capital investment to bring greater pressure, more indebted tire manufacturers more difficult, in the high interest rate manufacturers have to continue, although the release of heavy resistance, although the high price can be stable profits, but sales are difficult to synchronize. Through the price to boost the role of the price is not strong.
Downstream, China Automobile Industry Association statistical analysis, July 2015, passenger car sales fell 4 consecutive months since April, down from the same period last month after a decline, and the decline is more than expected.
Analysts expect the current market to do more confident is still insufficient, in the short term, the macro side still remain bearish sentiment, economic downward pressure is still evident, the outlook is not optimistic about rubber demand.

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