Plastic: stocking demand is worth attention-Iota

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News > Dynamic industry > Plastic: stocking demand is worth attention

Plastic: stocking demand is worth attention

Recently, a shares continuous six trading days plummeted more than 1000 points, lead to global capital market panic decline, plastics futures since mid August by the stock market as well as the impact of oil prices fell, the continuous upward downward and weak.
Panic difficult, difficult to price
Last week Caixin, a Chinese August manufacturing PMI was 47.1, than last month fell 0.7 percent, hit a 2009 years 3 months since the lowest market on China's economic bottom of the acceleration is expected to aggravate, prompting a shares fell continuously, European stock markets also implicated down sharply, U.S. crude oil fell to wear the lows of the financial crisis of 2008, global risk assets of runaway mode exacerbated the market panic.
Current upstream oil supply excess pressure is still large. 7 month OPEC crude oil production hit a 31.51 million barrels / day of May 2012 highs and a major producer of OPEC production quotas on the distribution differences, held an emergency meeting limited production of the insured is less likely, OPEC crude oil supplies will remain at a high level; crude oil production in the United States in 934.8_wan million barrels / day level, compared to 6 month 961 million barrels / day highs some decline, but compared to the global 200 million barrels / day above the supply excess volume is minimal. Next, the demand for crude oil will enter a seasonal off-season, and the global economy enveloped in the midst of a new round of crisis, the crude oil market demand side has continued to weaken, before the oil supply side, there is no obvious contraction is expected international oil prices will continue the current trend of bottom, does not exclude the United States oil to below 30 - 35 dollars / barrel test.
Petrochemical plant is running normally, and the import is kept low.
Only Shanghai Petrochemical (600688, stock it), Shenyang chemical (000698, stock it), as well as the Yangtze Petrochemical PE device parking overhaul, the total supply of domestic PE is in a full state, but LDPE and HDPE relative to the spread of LLDPE in a very high position, the enthusiasm of the factory production LLDPE is not high. Recent Dushanzi native LLDPE equipment have switched to the production of HDPE, Fu Lian line 2 also plans in September by the LLDPE turn for HDPE, LLDPE domestic supply in September will be a small contraction; imports by RMB exchange rate depreciation and direction in the fourth quarter of unknown effects, import traders of intention is not strong, is expected to imports of plastics market will be lower than the seasonal pattern and maintained at a low level. Domestic petrochemical supply and import volume remained at a stable level.
Downstream demand downturn, the social inventory pressure is not
September began, the plastic downstream will enter the traditional demand season, but subject to the economic situation and the trend of the price of this year, the downward trend, the terminal demand has always been not warm, the downstream manufacturers of raw materials is very cautious, and more with the purchase of the main. With the decline in prices of raw materials, production of plastic sheeting enterprises has losses into profit, late of plastic sheeting enterprises low stocking demand concern.
From the perspective of social inventories, as of last weekend, the petrochemical polyolefin stocks by the market fell, light effects, to 770000 tons level, as of August 16, 2015, the domestic PE inventories decreased by 1.52% compared with last year, an increase of 3.41% over the previous year. At present, the overall inventory of PE in China is in the low level, and the social pressure is not great.
Plastics market is expected in the short term continuation of the weak trend of bottom. But need to focus on is that once the external macroeconomic stabilization, as well as the price of plastic scrap market to increase the demand for plastic scrap market, the emergence of plastic futures market rebound in the magnitude and space is also large.

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