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News > Dynamic industry > Chinese silicone monomer how excess (reading)

Chinese silicone monomer how excess (reading)

Chinese silicone monomer how excess (reading)
Author: National silicon industry green development strategic alliance
Chief analyst Zhong Weike
Objective: according to the silicon industry green development strategic alliance SAGSI latest 2014 year industry monitoring report, 2014 China organic silicon monomer production enterprises with a total of 15, total capacity of 113.5 million tons / year (siloxane), the average operating rate was 61.9%, down 2.5 percentage points. From the start rate, the capacity of silicone monomer seems to be very serious.
If the layout of the lower reaches of the product to analyze, the Chinese silicone capacity excess rate of 10%, such as table 1. The production capacity of the downstream products in the table is more than 95%, which is not statistically different from the three kinds of silicone rubber, silicone oil and silicone resin. In this case, the silicone monomer production capacity of 111900 tons / year. If a more comprehensive statistics on the downstream capacity, and even the shutdown device capacity, under construction will soon be put into production capacity of the device included in the statistics, it is estimated that the siloxane monomer production capacity excess amount is not more than 5%.
Obviously, the reason for the low operating rate of silicone monomer unit lies in the low operating rate of the downstream plant.
From the downstream of the layout, reasonable distribution of the production capacity of polysiloxane in China, the production process is short, simple technology of silicone oil capacity utilization rate is higher, the development potential of the larger products instead of operating rate is low.
At present, China's economy is facing many pressures, including: serious excess capacity, labor costs increase, the aging of population and currency appreciation, etc.. 2014, China's economic growth further down, GDP growth from 7.69% in 2013 to 7.35%. Real estate, textile and electromechanical industry downturn, directly affect the demand of polysiloxane industry growth.
SAGSI believes that the main factors of affecting the silicone products production in 2014 including: demand fluctuations resulting in the adjustment of industrial structure, market competition leads to the capacity to focus and transfer, safety and environmental protection factors resulted in the production. The production has obvious to the leading enterprises trend, productivity growth is slowing down, the overall number of enterprises showed a decreasing trend, large-scale equipment and automation level increased.
According to different downstream industry, oil industry is currently subject to textile industry, weak demand, and daily chemical industry silicone oil safety storm impact, overall demand has slowed down, squeezing the had a large number of small and medium enterprises market capacity, accelerate the market reorganization process. Liquid adhesive market demand is spread rapidly, in Southern China, the emergence of more small and medium enterprises in East China, the production of strong. High temperature glue, liquid glue Market after years of development, has been the emergence of a leading enterprises and leading enterprises to the market dominant power for the growing, a large number of small and medium enterprises is because of cost and quality reasons gradually being marginalized.
In the future, the key to improve the operating rate of the organic silicon monomer industry is to increase the operating rate of the downstream production plant, especially the silicone rubber with 2/3 consumption.
At present, the proportion of polysiloxane consumption in China the biggest is the field of construction, electronics / appliance, electric power / energy, medical and personal care, textile and garment, industrial additives. According to SAGSI estimates. These areas accounted for total consumption of siloxane 23.2%, 19.6%, 16.7%, 9.7%, 9.2% and 6.8%, daily necessities and transport sector accounted for 3.4% and 2.5%, there are still larger space for development.
Through the analysis and prediction of the future macroeconomic trends and industry structure adjustment direction, the SAGSI has been predicted in 2019.
Accompanied by slowing the large-scale infrastructure construction gradually completed and the process of urbanization, the next five years building silicone market has experienced a period of rapid growth in, in about 2019 into relatively weak area, SAGSI is expected over the next five years, the field of organic silicon consumption growth is about 4.6%.
With the gradual adjustment of the primary process of industrialization gradually completed and industrial layout, mass of long distance power transmission facilities demand will drop slightly, but at the same time, smart grid, UHV, HVDC transmission and other new things will bring new market opportunities. SAGSI expected future 5 years the market average growth rate will be maintained at about 5.5%.
Personal computer and control terminal tablet will greatly affect the traditional electronics industry of organic consumption, but the consumer electronics industry brings the prosperity of the market will be further continued, especially contact, mobile, sports, entertainment, electronic equipment development prospects are very promising, the estimation of SAGSI, future 5 years of silicone average growth rate of consumption of about 5.0%.
With the further improvement of the living standards of the people, the consumption capacity of the population of young enhancement, also a lot of aging of population health care demand increased, health and personal care market prospects are very bright. SAGSI is expected over the next five years, the field of organic silicon consumption growth is about 9.1%, after five years is expected to continue rising.
Daily necessities industry will be one of the future demand for silicone the highest growth rate in the market in the field of, such as tableware, the protection pad, decorations, and other industries, due to silicone unique performance and outstanding price, SAGSI is expected over the next five years, the market growth is expected to reach more than 15%.
In addition, the transportation industry with organic silicon material growth will remain at more than 10%, mainly from the automotive, marine and high-speed rail and other industries.
Overall, China silicone downstream market is undergoing drastic changes, the focus of the market gradually by the service industry manufacturing to service the third industry and people's daily life products is gradually from low-end products to high-end transition, especially in export-oriented electromechanical and textile producing consumer goods gradually reduced.

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