Report: Silicone Market Analysis in the first half of 2015-Iota

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News > Dynamic industry > Report: Silicone Market Analysis in the first half of 2015

Report: Silicone Market Analysis in the first half of 2015

The bottom line is the impact of a second, say that the rise is not found traces - the first half of 2015, the silicone market market analysis
In the first half of 2015, the overall trend of the domestic market of silicone and last year basically the same: on the eve of the Spring Festival of high and volatile market, after the Spring Festival market continued to decline. However, market prices, 2015 silicone products market price is generally low, resulting in this phenomenon the reason is in many aspects, below, Xiaobian will take you detailed review in 2015 in the first half of silicone market dynamics and the main cause of this phenomenon.
1 market price trend analysis
Silicone market price trend in 2015, there are three main characteristics: low volatility, an insufficient, upward lag.
According to statistics, in January 2015, silicone based products DMC market traded the focus in 16000 yuan / ton, although before the Spring Festival market slightly Yindie, but marginally; after the Spring Festival market showed continued to decline in the trend, as of late June, DMC market traded the focus in 15000 yuan / ton, compared with a drop at the beginning of the month 1000 yuan / ton, a decline in 6.25%.
Compared with the 2014, 2015 silicone market price is generally low, according to statistics, 2014 half silicone based products DMC market fold maintained at 16180 yuan / ton, while the first half of 2015, silicone DMC market average price dropped to 15700 yuan / ton; the highest market appeared in early January, 2014 DMC high in 16800 yuan / ton, while the 2015 DMC the highest price is at 16200 yuan / ton.
Signs of early June 2014, silicone market began to appear upward, the data show that in early June 2014 silicone DMC market reached the lowest point of the year, the market price is 15600 yuan / ton, after the market began to rebound in the bottom and continued to rally, in the "golden nine silver ten" period, DMC market prices rose to 17100 yuan / ton, reaching the highest of all the year round. However at the end of the second quarter of 2015, silicone market is rarely seen upward signs, the market bottom consolidation trend is clearly, throughout the month of June, DMC mainstream market clinch a deal the price in the $15200-15300 / tons, market bottom rebound time is a foregone conclusion.
2 market impact factors analysis
Caused by 2015 in the second half of the silicone market trend appears above characteristics factor is the, combined with 2014 market, we analyze the influencing factors mainly lies in the material support weakened, the new release of production capacity and downstream demand downturn and other aspects.
Raw material support weakened: in 2015, the main raw materials for the silicon upstream raw materials metal silicon and methanol market performance is different, but the overall point of view, the market price and 2014 compared to still have a gap.
As can be seen from raw materials chemical grade silicon metal 421, compared to the same period last year, 2015 1-2 month market trend no apparent changes. However, in March, has presented a diametrically opposite phenomenon, we analyze the reason, 2015 silicon metal new production capacity is growing rapidly, the volume of exports from the same period significant decline in the downstream industry downturn operation and silicon factory panic mentality and, under the influence, silicon metal market prices continue to decline, costs in the face of market of silicone support strength greatly weakened, as of the end of May, the chemical grade silicon metal 421 in Shandong Province sent prices in the 13000 yuan / ton, while the last year same period price in 13850 yuan / ton, fell 6 percent.
The release of new capacity: 2008 since, domestic silicone industry began to enter the crazy expansion stage, according to statistics, in 2008 the domestic capacity of organic silicon monomer in 81.3 million tons (including domestic plant production of foreign capacity, the same below), by the end of 2012, the domestic capacity of organic silicon monomer reached 214 million tons, five years increased 132.7 million tons, with an average annual increase of 25.7%. In 2013, the local industry integration began quietly, the increase in overall production reached 1.2% of the lowest, only 8 million tons new capacity. However, in 2014, the single industry again with the time set foot in the expansion of the road. As of the end of June 2015, domestic capacity of organic silicon monomer reached 280 million tons, the new capacity is mainly Tangshan Sanyou add 10 million tons, 5 million tons of technical renovation of Shandong Dongyue, also in Sichuan silicon peak 10 million tons, Jiangsu Hongbo 10 million tons of monomer unit in the long-term parking during the actual production to about 2.6 million tons about.
In the second quarter of 2015 monomer new capacity began to focus on the release, industry operating load resulting in improved significantly, as shown in the picture can be seen in the first quarter, the domestic industry of organic silicon monomer construction load trend consistent with last year, but overall still inadequate. However, in the second quarter, by new effects of the release of production capacity, industry operating rate increased dramatically, which in April industry operating rate reached 61%, although in May and June started to decline, but the second quarter monthly average operating rate remained at about 59%, and last year growth compared to the same period the three percentage points.
Add the release of production capacity led to the upgrading of industry operating load, domestic production increased, but the downstream demand did not follow up, under the premise of oversupply, silicone products market price war begins to grow in intensity.
Sluggish downstream demand: for the formation of commodity circulation industry, the downstream demand can be described as is most important, in the first half of 2015, silicone downstream industry demand for silicon rubber flat, we analyze the reason, the macro side of domestic economic situation is not optimistic, the national implementation of the fine-tuning of monetary easing to boost the economy limited, RRR cuts and not let the economy has improved, silicon rubber terminal construction industry by the impact is bigger, 2015 on the first half of the property market warmer signs is not obvious, a quarter of new real estate development area of growth is limited, silicone rubber

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